3G and HSDPA coverage: operator execs are not using what they're selling

Why isn't 3G taking off as anticipated? Because operator execs do not try to use the services they are selling. Let me explain.

It is common knowledge that 3G infrastructure investment is generally limited to densely populated areas: it's costly and it makes sense (does it?) that operators should start investing where they find the greatest number of customers. The thing with 3G though (at least in Europe) is that nobody cares about the mobile services offered over the network, except getting fast access to the Web while on the go. Plus it's still ridiculously expensive.

But in densely populated urban areas people have lots of alternatives for getting on the web. They are likely to be commuting from home to office (both with broadband connections) or they may just hook up on one of the multitude of WiFi hotspots. The instances when they have no other choice but their mobile are very very few and not worth the subscription price.

But rural areas do not present anything near as many alternatives for getting on the web. Fixed broadband infrastructures are patchy and there aren't many (or any!) WiFi hotspots to be found. This is where you really need your broadband mobile internet! Except there's no coverage. I bet that if they do the math, operators will find that there are many people who are prepared to subscribe to 3G even if they're only going to use it when out of town. This pent-up demand should justify the infrastructure investment, and more.

If you're an economist, it's plain network externalities. If you're an end user, it's plain common sense. It seems to me that operator execs are neither.

Mobile TV (again...): if it worked, we wouldn't be asking

Is mobile TV catching the zeitgeist again? Check Blogpulse. On April 2, Business Week published an article (p. 24) on the prospects of advertising over mobile TV. The author, Jon Fine, is very sceptical. And rightly so. Of course, two readers invested in this prospect rushed online to justify the hype, talking about the tipping point of mobile tv and the fact that it's coming sooner than we thought. Interestingly, the following issue of Business Week had mobile TV as the topic of it's "Question of the week": "Do people really want to watch TV on their cell phones or other handheld devices?" Two of the three experts are adamantly positive. My question is the following: Mobile TV has been with us for over two years now; the hype has been going on for much longer and we're still wondering if people want to watch it? If it worked, we wouldn't be asking.

Missed Calls

It's surprising how little research has been done on missed calls, given that they're so pervasive, mainly among the younger ages (adolescents). Interestingly, there is a paper by Jonathan Donner on "the rules of beeping" in sub-Saharan Africa. Apparently the phenomenon there is very widespread among all demographic (including age) groups (google it on scholar and click google's cache).

For some reason most of us, including the most avid users of missed calls, take this tool for granted and do not think twice about how or why it is being used. A common misconception is that missed calls are all about pre-arranged signals, typically "call me back". Indeed, a significant proportion of missed calls are prearranged, and many of those pre-arranged are callback calls. Donner employs a taxonomy of 3 categories to classify mixed calls: callback, prenegotiated instrumental (of the kind "call me when you arrive"), and relational. The relational category includes everything else. It is not evident in Donner's paper, but in my experience and research, those so called relational missed calls represent the vast majority.

I'm prepared to argue that these missed calls have an indeterminate meaning, they are highly idiosyncratic to the individuals involved and to their particular time and place context, and they may carry potentially very rich meaning. Come to think about it, once two users have mastered the art of making sense of missed calls, even instrumental missed calls need not be pre-negotiated: you don't have to agree in advance that "I'll call you when I get there to pick you up" because you'll be able to figure that out when the missed call from the given person rings at the given moment.

From this point of view, in Donner's taxonomy, callback is a subcategory of pre-negotiated instrumental, and this, in turn, is a subcategory of relational.

Another misconception is that missed calls are used only to minimize cost. Granted, missed calls are initially motivated by the fact that they're not charged. Once you're into it however, there are many more 'social' or 'relational' reasons why missed calls are the medium of choice in in contrast to a text message or a voice call. Generally speaking, the missed call may convey all those unspoken thoughts and feelings that you can't or don't want to put in words. Or, often, you may not have something specific to say, but you may still want to touch base with some other.

A mobile payment system that may actually catch on

We've seen several mobile payment solutions over the last six years or so. Most are out of business and none got into the mainstream. The ubiquitous mobile content payment method is premium SMS, which, obviously has limitations as to the range of transactions it can support. I took a quick look at Paypal mobile and there are three things that I like about it.

1. It appears like it's uncomplicated to use; the user does not have to remember a particular routine to go through in order to expedite a transaction.
2. Paypal is an established player with a large installed base in many countries. Both infrastructure and brand-based trust will not be a problem.
3. They seem to be offering more than just another payment solution. It's a different way of thinking about shopping: I see something in an ad, a billboard, or a product placement, and I can buy it instantly and on the spot with a simple SMS. Now, that's compelling!

The concept (No 3) is the most important. Success will depend on the other two and, also, on how many and how soon Paypal can sign up vendors and advertisers.

More than that, this purchasing concept may spawn a new generation of advertising-based content models, where product placement (in a movie, TV episode or video clip) may generate show-time/real-time sales. This may be a good way out for those content providers who suffer from file sharing.

Privacy out into the world

Usually insightful Techdirt seems to have been caught off guard with this. The mobile phone, unlike any other thing we have known, seems to be the ultimate private information and communications device: What goes on on my mobile interface is known only to me (possibly also to my operator). Socially, it is also considered bad taste to pick someone else's mobile and start scouring it. By virtue of its privacy, the mobile is also the ultimate transformer of public space into temorary private worlds. Whether it's a voice call, a text exchange or a mobile info service, I get immersed in the timespace of that interaction, nomatter whether I'm on the road or in a meeting. See: non-places restored, internet public and mobile privacy, homogenized living, and hypertext living.

VoIP over 3G

Who would have thought that competition and technological convergence would move so fast as to give rise to such cannibalism! I remember back in 2000 talking with friends from Mannesman (later acquired by Vodafone), WiFi was the big taboo; they got so irritated whenever someone brough it up and would change the topic without second thought.

And here we are today: 3G operators trying to squeeze some revenue out of their expensive infrastructure are prepared to sell their souls to yesterday's 'devil'. e-plus in Germany is said to offer 40 Euro flat fee for 3G access with Skype embedded. What next?

Mobile search services: is there any use for them?

A recent MobHappy entry received varied comments on the usability and usefulness of mobile search services. The main argument is that mobile search will not be about finding local info - we are all used to getting local info quite efficiently and effectively from the local social network - but it will be about "Need to Know Now". For example, I am out and about with friends without a plan and we think about going to watch a movie: what is on show in cinemas in our general whereabouts? This is a scenario that has happened to me several times. And I have tried using my mobile phone to find out. It's been too slow, too cumbersome, too frustrating. By the time I logged on, someone else had gone to the local kiosk, bought the equivalent of "What's On" magazine and found out all that we needed about movies, plus theaters and restaurants and you name it. You can replicate the same experience on a desktop or laptop but not on a mobile. The mobile interface is too handicapped for such a purpose, besides, it would cost a lot more in comparison to buying the mag. Not to mention that you can roll and fold and tear up and throw away the magazine but you'll never do such things to your expensive gadget!

Another consideration is the context of using the mobile phone. Professionals use their phones most in parallel with some other activity, such as driving, attending a meeting, walking down the street. In most such cases, you can't spare the other hand or the extra finger-clicks or the additional attention to the small screen to do a computer-like search. It's easier to plug your hands-free earpiece and call a telephone directory or yellow page service and ask the operator. It's usually also cheaper that the equivalent data service.

Real time conference blogs

I dug this up from an older issue of the Economist (7 August 2004, "The new networking: How to network between coffee breaks"). Imagine that you are speaking at a conference and the live blog projected right next to your presentation slides suddenly reads "what a load of nonsense... you'd better step down before it's too late", the message having been posted by a member of the audience you are overlooking!. It's actually happening. And I think it's a good thing and will probably catch on.

At last, services we might actually use

It is widely reported today (and here) that mobile operators and other mobile technology companies have agreed with ICANN the launch of a .mobi top level internet domain. Web sites published under .mobi will have to conform to certain design standards as to make the site usable from the limited interface of the mobile phone. This move may actually spur the development of independent third party services that people may actually want to use on their mobiles (as opposed to the limited, clumsy, and unimaginative operator-driven services available in Europe today). The remaining barrier will be the cost of 3G and GPRS access which are still quite expensive.