3G and HSDPA coverage: operator execs are not using what they're selling

Why isn't 3G taking off as anticipated? Because operator execs do not try to use the services they are selling. Let me explain.

It is common knowledge that 3G infrastructure investment is generally limited to densely populated areas: it's costly and it makes sense (does it?) that operators should start investing where they find the greatest number of customers. The thing with 3G though (at least in Europe) is that nobody cares about the mobile services offered over the network, except getting fast access to the Web while on the go. Plus it's still ridiculously expensive.

But in densely populated urban areas people have lots of alternatives for getting on the web. They are likely to be commuting from home to office (both with broadband connections) or they may just hook up on one of the multitude of WiFi hotspots. The instances when they have no other choice but their mobile are very very few and not worth the subscription price.

But rural areas do not present anything near as many alternatives for getting on the web. Fixed broadband infrastructures are patchy and there aren't many (or any!) WiFi hotspots to be found. This is where you really need your broadband mobile internet! Except there's no coverage. I bet that if they do the math, operators will find that there are many people who are prepared to subscribe to 3G even if they're only going to use it when out of town. This pent-up demand should justify the infrastructure investment, and more.

If you're an economist, it's plain network externalities. If you're an end user, it's plain common sense. It seems to me that operator execs are neither.

Mobile TV (again...): if it worked, we wouldn't be asking

Is mobile TV catching the zeitgeist again? Check Blogpulse. On April 2, Business Week published an article (p. 24) on the prospects of advertising over mobile TV. The author, Jon Fine, is very sceptical. And rightly so. Of course, two readers invested in this prospect rushed online to justify the hype, talking about the tipping point of mobile tv and the fact that it's coming sooner than we thought. Interestingly, the following issue of Business Week had mobile TV as the topic of it's "Question of the week": "Do people really want to watch TV on their cell phones or other handheld devices?" Two of the three experts are adamantly positive. My question is the following: Mobile TV has been with us for over two years now; the hype has been going on for much longer and we're still wondering if people want to watch it? If it worked, we wouldn't be asking.

Missed Calls

It's surprising how little research has been done on missed calls, given that they're so pervasive, mainly among the younger ages (adolescents). Interestingly, there is a paper by Jonathan Donner on "the rules of beeping" in sub-Saharan Africa. Apparently the phenomenon there is very widespread among all demographic (including age) groups (google it on scholar and click google's cache).

For some reason most of us, including the most avid users of missed calls, take this tool for granted and do not think twice about how or why it is being used. A common misconception is that missed calls are all about pre-arranged signals, typically "call me back". Indeed, a significant proportion of missed calls are prearranged, and many of those pre-arranged are callback calls. Donner employs a taxonomy of 3 categories to classify mixed calls: callback, prenegotiated instrumental (of the kind "call me when you arrive"), and relational. The relational category includes everything else. It is not evident in Donner's paper, but in my experience and research, those so called relational missed calls represent the vast majority.

I'm prepared to argue that these missed calls have an indeterminate meaning, they are highly idiosyncratic to the individuals involved and to their particular time and place context, and they may carry potentially very rich meaning. Come to think about it, once two users have mastered the art of making sense of missed calls, even instrumental missed calls need not be pre-negotiated: you don't have to agree in advance that "I'll call you when I get there to pick you up" because you'll be able to figure that out when the missed call from the given person rings at the given moment.

From this point of view, in Donner's taxonomy, callback is a subcategory of pre-negotiated instrumental, and this, in turn, is a subcategory of relational.

Another misconception is that missed calls are used only to minimize cost. Granted, missed calls are initially motivated by the fact that they're not charged. Once you're into it however, there are many more 'social' or 'relational' reasons why missed calls are the medium of choice in in contrast to a text message or a voice call. Generally speaking, the missed call may convey all those unspoken thoughts and feelings that you can't or don't want to put in words. Or, often, you may not have something specific to say, but you may still want to touch base with some other.